Now as I sit here in May of 2010, a 23 year old who has not had too
much to celebrate as a Cincinnati sports fan, Things may be starting
to look up for my future as a fan. And no, its not because I have
decided to jump ship and go root for other cities teams as some of my
family members have. The Cincinnati Bengals made the playoffs last
season and with a little tweaking may be back there this season. The
Cincinnati Reds are sitting in first place right now. Trust me, I know
as well as anyone that it is May, and Dusty Baker is still the Reds
manager. They are liable to finish the season at 10 games under .500.
Right now though I would just like to be optimistic. They have a good
group of young players and Louisville just keeps on producing. Learn
the name Rick Sweet by the way. He’s my vote for next manager.

Moving on, let’s talk about some of the minor sports going on in this
town. The Cincinnati Cyclones managed two years ago to win the Kelly
Cup, winning the ECHL (equivalent to double a baseball). Last year
they had the best record in the league during the regular season, and
lost in the semifinals. This season they are up 2 games to 1 in the
Kelly Cup finals once again. I would like to say congratulations to
coach Bruce Weber and urge AHL teams to think about hiring him.

Xavier basketball has been to three straight Sweet 16′s and continues
to prove itself as a big time program despite the size of the school.
UC football, a program that had never really had success has won two
straight Big East conference Championships. And last but not least the
Cincinnati Commandos (some type of arena football) are undefeated and
rolling over the opposition.

The outlook as a Cincinnati sports fan seems to be a good one right
now. Maybe I am just being optimistic, but I reserve that right at
least until the Reds fall from first.

-Danny

“You see guys like Jermaine Dye without a job,” Hudson told Yahoo.com. “Guy with [27 home runs and 81 RBIs] and can’t get a job. Pretty much sums it up right there, no? You’ve got some guys who miss a year who can come back and get $5, $6 million, and a guy like Jermaine Dye can’t get a job. A guy like Gary Sheffield, a first-ballot Hall of Famer, can’t get a job.

Dye has two seasons of over 130 OPS+ in his whole career. His career OPS+ is 111. That makes him about 5.5% better than an average hitter. When you consider his defense has been atrocious since 2005, you realize he may have a slightly negative value on a team. He demands millions for 27 home runs last year, but this is no longer 2005. GM’s are smarter. They see the whole picture.

The irony is that Hudson got a job based on perceived defense, yet that is not a concern at all when talking about Dye.

Gary Sheffield, the “first ballot Hall of Famer,” is getting HOF consideration because he is old (41). And he is a pain. He can still hit (decently…119 OPS + last year) but can’t run or field. Is he worth the trouble any more?

“We both know what it is. You’ll get it right. You’ll figure it out. I’m not gonna say it because then I’ll be in [trouble]. Call it what you want to,” Hudson added. “I ain’t fit to say it. After I retire I’ll say it. I’ve got a whole bunch of stuff to say after I retire.”

Ahh…this isn’t an intelligent discussion as to the merits of dropping a few mil on fringe players…it is because they are black. Being black stopped the Angels from dropping the worst contract in history (with apologies to Darren Dreifort) on Gary Matthews, Jr. (5 years, $55 mil). Oh, it didn’t?

But, seriously, I am thinking Rickey Henderson should start using this excuse. He still wants to play, right?

I mean, seriously, General Managers would sign you to a big deal if you were grey, gold, pink, yellow, a sort of ugly sea foam green, white, or black if you are a good baseball player. Perhaps people in their late 30′s and 40′s and are past their prime are poor examples of players for Hudson’s point!?!?

-Tim

Prince Albert, who is in my opinion the best hitter in baseball, hit two home runs yesterday against the Reds. Of course the brilliance that is Scott Rolen had this to say about it: “He has a knack of putting the barrel on the ball.” Thanks for the in depth analysis there Scott. Probably good for the Cards that he doesn’t have a knack of missing the ball. Dusty chimes in with: “Somebody’s getting him out, he ain’t hitting .800. Good point Dusty, doesn’t mean high fastballs down the middle are good ways to pitch him. Aaron Harang says: “You can’t be intimidated by him. When you nitpick, that’s when he really flourishes.” Well I guess throwing him a high fastball down the middle isn’t nitpicking is it Aaron. He tends to flourish on pitches there too. Enough complaining about the idiots that makes up the Reds.

Baseball is started though which officially makes it the best time of the year. And now college basketball is over after an epic final last night. It was a pretty amazing game. Too bad Duke had to come out on top. I was not rooting for Butler as much as I was rooting against Duke. That game was though, no matter who won, a major win for white boy basketball. Gotta love a bunch of layups, made three point shots, charges taken  (even by the 7 footers) and people actually making their free throws. I say it was a win for fifth grade coaches trying to convince their youngsters to learn the fundamentals most of all.

This hasn’t been said too me too much as of late, but if anyone thinks the sport of soccer is boring then they need to check out Lionel Messi play. The guy may very well be the greatest player ever to grace a soccer field. That is saying more than Michael Jordan is the best basketball player(not true) or Gretzky is the greatest hockey play (true). It is different because soccer is truly worldwide. And soccer has been being played at the same level for over 100 years now, and Messi may well be the best player in all of that time. Watching him play compares to watching LeBron James play, only Messi is more dominant. I admit that this is coming from me after Messi took out my favorite soccer team with a four goal performance. Doesn’t matter, he has been doing this for years and this season he has taken it to another level. Honestly you will not think soccer is boring after watching him. Something special can happen every time the ball goes into his feet, check it out.

But really, baseball is back which means so is Joe Morgan and quotes like: “he got off to a good start and that is better than getting off to a bad start.” I don’t know about you but that makes me happy. Happy Baseball Season to all!!

-Danny

Okay, I confess from the outset – I have never been a big fan of American sports. Except the NHL that is, but let’s just put Ice Hockey aside for the sake of this argument.

Forgive me for my ignorance, as there is one thing I do actually love about American sports: the cheerleaders. And for obvious reasons, too.

Ok. There is at least a chance he is right about the NFL.

- Tim

I do have problems with this though. It starts with me wondering why it took until Brett Favre lost without touching the ball in overtime for the NFL to actually do something about this. I know that the owners vote on it, but they were also going to vote it down until the commissioner threw his support behind it. Not only does Brett Favre now take up half of every episode of Sportscenter in July, he now also has the power to make the league think about changing the rules because of his inability to win games in regulation.

Again I think this is a good start and should change one playoff game every three or four years. The only real question I have about it is whether or not Donovan McNabb will bother to actually learn the rules this time…..

-Danny

Though they would have rules in this madness, I swear. Well maybe only one or two. Teams couldn’t join a division more than two time zones away. This mainly has to do with TV rights. Okay yeah, that may be the only actual rule at this point. Teams would be allowed to switch leagues and some divisions would have more teams than others. Wow, this just sounds brutal to me right now. 

As I sit here thinking about how terrible this idea is, and I will get into why it is so terrible in a moment, I realize that the name of our blog is Tired Tradition. This gives me an opportunity to point out that I think people need to let tradition go, and be willing to learn new an exciting things about sports. That being said there are things that can be taken too far away from tradition and this would be one of them. 

The Yankees and Red Sox make the playoffs almost every year. One of them does make the playoffs every year, and about half of the time both of them do. Two years ago both of the didn’t. They didn’t because the Rays were finally smart and started having good draft picks and good minor league systems. This led to the Rays finally being good enough to beat the Yankees out for a playoff spot and even find themselves in the World Series. This, to me, means that this division is going to continue to be competitive for a long time because the Rays have that feeling of success and I am sure they want more of it now. But if the Rays are allowed to leave the division to find an easier one, and some teams that know they suck and are just looking for more fans to come to their games join the division, doesn’t that just mean that there is no chance that we are not going to see the Red Sox and Yankees in the playoffs every year. This means that while they play 18 games against all of their in division opponents, teams that know they cannot compete, the wins are just going to be building. 

This also means that owners do not have to be accountable for not caring about winning. There are a few owners that are just in it for the money, and if they were able to get a lot of fans at their games and still suck, there is no reason for them to ever try to be good. This hurts fans and it hurts the game of baseball. Right now there is reason to try to make your team better but with floating realignment it just means that teams can stay bad and still make good money. 

People that are discussing this idea are looking at it the same way that the NFL looked at making its schedule. It used to make the schedule so that they teams with the best records would be given the hardest scheduled and the teams with the worst the easiest. This was to keep the game even and give teams a fighting chance. I think that it is an okay idea. But it is an idea that is completely different from the one we are talking about in baseball. in baseball it helps teams that are good have an easier road to the playoffs and gives the teams that are bad an avenue to continue to be bad and still make money. 

Bud Selig has bad some good decisions for baseball, his best probably being when he turned a blind eye to steroids and let them happen for years in baseball. After the 80″s were one of the dullest decades ever in baseball, the steroids era saved baseball and put it back on people’s maps. It is fine to get rid of steroids now but unfortunately baseball needed steroids or it may be where hockey is right now. But Bud, this would not be good for the game. Please do not let this happen to baseball. 

-Danny

This safety is what writers who hate stats  prey on.  You know that diving catches, stolen bases, and batting averages are fun to watch and simple to comprehend.  Hey, it worked for Ty Cobb, it should work for David Eckstein.  But the fact of the matter is that we now have computers, video technology, and mathematicians that love sports.  These things have caused us to question what we know.  If sports writers lived in Boston in the 18th century, they would have made lame jokes questioning why we don’t just keep sending taxes to the King back in Britain.

Oh, and the odd thing is that modern metrics still maintain that the great players were great.  Ruth, Williams, Cobb, Gehrig, Mays, Mantle all rate highly in modern metrics.  Greatness can be seen with the naked eye.  It seems to me that it is the second level of players that are hard to figure.  Who are the really, really good players?  Who are the Scottie Pippens’ of MLB.  That discussion is what sabermetrics, advanced stats, etc. are calling us to question.

Note Bill Simmons:

That’s where the statistical movement sits in 2010. The previous decade was about sabermetricians winning the respect of the mainstream sports media (a work in progress, but it’s mostly happened) and the teams themselves (definitely happened). You can’t argue with the results, especially in the NBA, in which only eight teams could be currently classified as number-heavy … and all of them are winning. Five are contending for a title (Denver, Cleveland, Dallas, San Antonio and Boston, although Boston’s hopes are fading into Rasheed Wallace’s belly button right now); two overachieved despite comically bad luck with injuries (Houston and Portland); and the eighth is gunning to become the first team to win 50 games with a top-four under-24-years-old (the Zombies). Eight for eight? That has to mean something.

We knew something shifted in baseball a few years ago; it’s definitely happening in basketball right now. Whether it transforms the other sports remains to be seen. I do think we could reach a ceiling with performance-related formulas some day soon — if we’re not getting there already — and complicated analysis will shift to less definable quantities like injury recovery and behavior. But that’s a few years away. As I mentioned at the conference, the big challenge for sabermetricians this decade will be learning how to educate a mainstream audience in a relatable and entertaining way. Easier said than done.

Near the end of the afternoon, I was talking to Polian, someone whom I was hoping would be an a-hole (since he runs my least favorite football team and all) but couldn’t have been a nicer and smarter guy. He’s one of those people you spend 20 minutes with and end up saying afterward, “It totally makes sense to me why that guy was and is so successful.” And again, I wanted to hate him. So we were saying our goodbyes and I asked why he was skipping the last group of panels. He answered that he was doing some scouting with his friend Brian Burke, the GM of the Maple Leafs. Burke had a player he liked. Polian was tagging along.

I was confused. We were less than 36 hours into the NFL’s craziest free-agent signing period ever. We were just six weeks away from the NFL draft. Why would Polian want to spend a Saturday night at a high school hockey tournament in Massachusetts?

“Because I respect Brian and the way he thinks,” he said. “I might learn something.”

Here’s Bill Polian, one of the best football executives of all time, someone hitting the tail end of his career with nothing left to prove … and he still felt as though he had something to learn. That’s also why he came to Dorkapalooza, and that’s why Dorkapalooza is here to stay. You can never run out of things to learn.

Yes, we stand at a crossroads in 2010.  And Bill Polian is dead on.  Just because you are convinced that stats don’t tell the whole story (whether baseball, basketball, or football), doesn’t mean that he has it all figured out.  It seems that that is what sabermetrics is all about.  It isn’t about drawing a circle around truth and shoving it down your throat.  It is about a constant evaluation so that we can better and better understand what builds good teams, what wins games (over the long season…not day by day), who is more valuable between under appreciated player A and B (both available for the same price on the open market), etc.

Sabermetrics exist for us to learn more.  Are they final?  I hope not.  But there is more for me to learn, more for me to see when I watch a game, nuances beyond what I can see with my limited eyesight.

There is so much to learn.  Stats help us with that.  it doesn’t suck the life out of the game, it helps us see, and hopefully, learn more.

Oh, and I SOOOO need to be at Dorkapalooza in the near future.  Color me blissfully dorky.  Or whatever.

- Tim

No, I swear that is the thesis.  Read and learn what a lazy sports columnist can teach you, like Jay Bruce, can trudge your own bizarre path to big league stardom.  Step one: suck your first week, step two break your arm.  Trust me it worked for Bruce.  Well, Doc thinks it will work for Bruce.  He still isn’t super sure.  But he has a feeling something will happen this season.

GOODYEAR, Ariz. – The Reds are on the cusp of something. Nobody knows what. Everybody wants to find out.

Erase the word “Reds.”  That sentence could be written about all 30 MLB teams before every season in baseball history.  Thank you for the insight.  I read on because I need material.

“A lot of us are growing up,’’ says Jay Bruce, who is right in the middle of it. You can see it when they play and hear it when they talk. The most important young Reds know what they don’t know. They’re working on it. They’re figuring it out.

They know what they don’t?  They are working on what they don’t know?  What does that have to do with growing up?  What does growing up have to do with baseball?  What are they figuring out?  It???  This got published?  As is?

There hasn’t been this impressive a collection of kid talent here in 20 years. Nor, maybe, a greater sense of purpose.

Wasn’t the same exact thing said when Kearns and Dunn were flanking Griffey in the outfield (so sorry to bring that up Reds fans).  But because it didn’t work out doesn’t change the fact that Daugherty likely said the same darn thing about that outfield.

I love how it isn’t “there may not have been this much talent” or “I can’t remember this much talent.”  No, no.  There hasn’t been.  In 20 years.

Now back it up.  That is what good writers do.  They make a statement and eloquently prove it.

Bruce is on top of the wave, symbolic of the ride they’re all about to take. “I have the ability to do a lot of things in this game,’’ he says. “I’m learning how to apply the things I need to do to be successful. Things are starting to become a little more clear.’’

Or not.  Just let that statement about young talent fly.  Daugherty says so, must be true.

The worst thing to happen to Bruce was tearing it up at the plate upon arrival, two summers ago. The best was last year, when he broke his wrist and spent nine weeks observing.

What, what, huh?  The best stretch that Bruce had was bad?  Whatever happened to the old saying about how important it is to get off to a good start?  Having done that, we now think it was bad?

You know what would be the worst thing for the Reds this season?  If they got out to a hot start.  What would be much better is a 42-45 first half like they had last year.  That spurred them on to a 19-11 Sept./Oct, after they were already out of the playoff race.  Would they have been that good without that average start?  Doubtful.

The instant success gave him false hope.

Yeah, it totally wasn’t the fact that Baseball America named him the best prospect in all of baseball that gave him and all of Cincinnati “false hope.”  Nope.  It was a two week stretch of playing amazing baseball.

And how is anything about Jay Bruce false hope?  Is he beyond repair?  Are his 43 major league home runs before his 23rd birthday something to sneeze at?  Certainly, his 98 OPS+ suggests he has been an average hitter.  But at 23, most great hitting prospects are entering AAA.  Explain this false hope to me, Doc.

The broken wrist gave him wisdom, even as it gutted his season.

No explanation?  Ok.

I can see how a broken wrist offers perspective.  It gives you time to think.  Still seems to not be preferable to seeing live pitching, working on fundamentals in BP, and becoming more and more familiar with being a defensive RF.  Call me crazy.

Bruce will be just 23 on April 3. There will be lots of seasons. “I got to do a lot of watching for nine weeks. I learned how to be more of a student of the game,’’ he says. “I have so much to learn.’’

Yes, Jay Bruce, you do.  But Jay, you are 23.  You would have a lot to learn if you were playing daily or passing time by winning the pregame poker tournament with the members of the starting rotation not going in that nights game.  We all have more to learn about baseball.

Except Paul Daugherty.

He changed his stroke. Bruce called it a “double-tap,’’ something he did with his front foot. It was a timing thing and it had worked forever, until he got to the big leagues and pitchers figured him out.

Something he could not have done without having broken his wrist.

“I’d had a lot of success the old way,’’ he says. “But things change. A lot of succeeding in this game is being open to suggestion and willing to change.’’

No, no, no.  You had false success.  Really, it was just two weeks when you first came to Cincinnati.

That is a young veteran talking. It’s not the “deer in the headlights’’ player Bruce said he’d been before getting hurt last summer. “I didn’t know what to think, or how to think it,’’ he says.

You didn’t know what or how to think?

Dear learning disabled children of America.  Jay Bruce and Paul Daugherty want you to know you are too young and stupid to think.  If you need to pass a quiz, if you need to memorize a sonnet, if you need to remember where you put your $20 bill, if you need to remember what your mom told you to do before she left: break your wrist.  It brings untold clarity.

And alleviates false hope.  Just saying.  You know that when reputable sources like a High School Counselor or Baseball America say you are the best at something, they are just trying to blow smoke.

He’d expected a lot from himself. Others had, too. He thought he knew it all, because he’d never failed doing it his way.

When did he fail?  By what definition is he a failure?  Average as a 22 year old is the new failure.  Anything less than that, well, Cincinnati billionaire Carl Lindner is building a new skyscraper for you to jump from.

Then, he failed.

Again. Wow.

Bruce was hitting .207 on July 11, when he broke his wrist diving for a flyball. He’d hit 18 homers, but only one in nearly a month. He was trying to get two hits every at-bat. Pitchers feasted on his impatience and his bad judgment.

Failure?  He was still walking 7.6% of the time.  Good patience for someone trying to get two hits every time up.  He had hit 18 home runs, as noted.  Certainly, he was struggling.  But he was 22 and anointed the savior of Cincinnati.  Bad, but failure?  No chance for survival unless he broke his wrist.

It happens to all young hitters. It can bury them.

Just like it did Albert Pujols.  And Ted Williams.  All hitters, you know.

But seriously, if all hitters go through this, and not all break their wrist, was it really the best thing that could happen?  If all hitters go through this, as Doc suggests, doesn’t that kill his half baked thesis in the first place?

Bruce had nine weeks to dig himself out, without losing sleep over swinging at bad pitches. “Settle down. Be patient’’ was what he heard, from those he asked, and some he didn’t. “You’re not going to go 7-for-6 with eight doubles.’’

Good one.  3 out of 2 people suck at fractions.  Ha Ha Ha.

He came back after the injury to hit .326 in 18 games, with 17 RBI. It was a short sample, but enough to suggest that a kid was finding adulthood.

And you would have written the same thing two weeks into his big league career.  That is the danger with small sample sizes.

That describes more than a few players on the 2010 Reds: Bruce, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, possibly even Aroldis Chapman. A large contingent of players on the brink of figuring it out. When they do – and if they can do it collectively – will be the story of this summer.

Thank you for setting the Reds agenda.  Because I haven’t heard this already from EVERY REDS FAN I KNOW.  You have added nothing to the Reds discussion here by telling us what the story of the summer will be.  We all already know.

Thanks for trying though.

That makes Bruce a leading man. He says he’s learning to swing at better pitches because “pitch selection is going to determine my success. Nothing else.’’ Arthur Rhodes, Cincinnati’s 40-year-old reliever, calls an 0-1 count “a pitcher’s best friend.’’

Uh oh.  Bruce may start drawing walks.  Do that, Dusty benches you.

And what is with the random Arthur Rhodes quote?  Isn’t a strike out the best friend?  Or is the strikeout like the really hot girl that decides to go to prom with you, and the 0-1 count your best friend that made it happen?  See, endless stupid analogies.

“Last year, I’d be 0-1 a lot. I wouldn’t get myself into good counts,’’ says Bruce. “I’d swing at bad pitches. I’d swing at pitches I could hit, but couldn’t drive. I plan on being a lot different this year.’’

Dusty will have him benched by May.  Bruce is starting to sound like Adam Dunn.  Where is the aggressiveness in “I could hit, but not drive”?  Jay Bruce: you are future public enemy #1 in Cincy.  They hate good players, love people who hit sac flies.  Why get three runs when you can get dirty scoring one?

So does Homer Bailey, who has endured the same high expectations/big disappointments/now-eager-to-learn cycle that defines Bruce. Same for Cueto and Chapman. Kids growing up, on the cusp.

Did they have wrist breaks that brought them to this point, too?  Or are you continuing to systematically destroy your point?

Or,

How is Chapman included at all in this point?  There have been no ups, downs, or injuries.  Yet.  Pretty sure Dusty has a surgeon scheduled for August 12, after Chapman’s 304th inning.

“We have a lot of really young talent that’s still learning. We’re really close’’ to getting it right, Bruce believes. “We have the ability to be right there’’ in September.

Just let Dusty tear a few more tendons in pitchers arms this year and they will all be super focused next year.  As it is Edinson Volquez will be a monster in September.

No truth to the rumor that Mark Prior is now super ready to tear up the majors.  He is crazy thankful for the perspective that Dusty gave him after the 2003 season.

Maybe so. You never know when kids will grow up. But their future is getting closer. You can see it.

Just not sure that Daugherty, he of the jacked up, poorly argued thesis is the guy you want calling “it.”  Let’s just plan to work together to have the whole Major League squad hit the DL so that they can win the World Series next year.

Meanwhile, join with me in praying that Chapman sucks so as to not provide false hope sure to lead to failure.  It is an inevitability.

- Tim

My Red Sox were the worst team in baseball.  Shock.  Hopefully they learned something.

Here is the article.  I have no context with which to respond to this, as it is completely new thinking to me.  However, it is always refreshing to see a writer thinking about baseball in new terms that (1) keep the best players on the field, (2) find new competitive advantages, (3) lower costs, and (4) Dusty Baker be aware, save the arms of young talent.  This article may be the first step in new thinking regarding saving talent and getting full careers out of gifted bodies.

- Tim

Jerry Thornton, I have no idea who you are.  No clue.  Never heard of you before.  In a city of blowhards like Shaughnessey and Ryan, you have yet to register.  Congrats, on the distance made up with this one article.

Anyone who knows me will tell you I’m wildly, consistently and preternaturally optimistic about the Red Sox, especially this time of year. My spring training default setting is to just assume that 7½ months from now, we’re going to be treating last night’s champagne hangover with a mixture of the hair of the dog that bit us and duck boat exhaust fumes. And I’m not shy about pointing out the two times I was right.

I can only promise this to you: this intro has NOTHING to do with the thesis of the article.  Great beginning.

He may as well say: “Hi, I am Jerry.  I am every ignorant fan in America.  That qualifies me to comment on the sex lives of people who understand math better than I do.  Ha Ha, Ha Ha, math is for LOSERS!”

Such an opening would use the same third grade writing style and mentality Jerry uses throughout and actually get at what his article is all about.

And this year is no exception. As daylight savings time begets Irish Christmas, which segues into March Madness, which will tide us over until Opening Day, I already can feel the anticipation as we wait for Mayor Menino’s lips to turn the words “Rolling Rally” into a tongue twister of indecipherable consonant sounds once again.

????????????????????

It’s like the drunk guy at slam poetry trying too hard.  You aren’t a poet…or creative.  How did you get this job?

And as I do, there’s only one thing I see spoiling the party. One small, nagging turd in the punchbowl, mitigating an otherwise perfect celebration. I’m afraid that if … when … the Sox win it all this year, it will mean total victory has been achieved by that odd, creepy little subculture that lives among us: the Stat Geeks.

In what world does this guy:

get to define creepy?  He looks like Public Enemy #1 on the Arkansas Sex Offender registry.  He is not creepy: math is!

Oh, and he believes that this team can win the World Series…even though it was that dirty math man himself, Theo Epstein that put it together.

There’s no escaping this conclusion: the Stat Geeks have quietly and insidiously taken power. Every hot stove report I’ve read this offseason, every article written from Fort Myers, every statement from Sox brass, has the Stat Geeks’ grubby little fingerprints on it. They’re like the Communist Party plotting to take over Hollywood in the 1950s before Ronald Reagan got wise to them and kicked their pinko butts all the way back to Moscow and Harvard Square. Only, instead of trying to write screenplays full of anti-capitalists rants, the Stat Geeks have succeeded in making otherwise normal, decent, God-fearin’ Americans start talking about VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) ratings and UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) numbers like they really believe in this nonsense.

Stat guys are COMMUNISTS!  It is as if Joseph McCarthy wrote this article.

And what exactly, makes VORP nonsense?  What about UZR (which is actually a statistical analysis that is based on what people see.  They watch, they measure angles, speed, positioning, then grade out fielders.)?  Why are these things nonsense?  One should have to explain, no?  That is a basic rule of writing: defend your thesis.  Defend it: do not pull a hit and run against something you are too stupid to comprehend.

And call me overly paranoid, but part of me is afraid Theo Epstein is their prize project. The one they’ve brainwashed into bringing their message of Sabremetric supremacy to the world. The Staturian Candidate.

No you are not paranoid.  Theo is a sabermetrictian.  Deal.  it got us two World Series titles.

But, it is not like all of the scouts were fired.  Theo constantly says that go for players that stats and scouts agree on.  Seems like a thorough plan.

Look at the Red Sox roster as it’s currently constituted: While there’s still a core of blue chip, proven, battle-tested baseball lifers who’d be winners in any era … the Pedroias, Becketts, Lesters, Papelbons and Youkili … it seems like this offseason, the rest of the roster was supplanted with Stat Geek favorites. Agents who were trained in a basement at the Baseball Prospectus HQ to infiltrate the Sox and destroy them from within. And suddenly, a legit All-Star like Jason Bay is body-snatched away and replaced with Mike Cameron with his 70 RBI but his to-die-for Rtzhm (total fielding runs above average at home) numbers. I don’t know Cameron and maybe he’ll be a great addition to the club. But I also won’t be surprised to find out he talks in a robot voice and repeats “I am Mike. I play center field. Would you care to discuss my lgRF9 (league range factor for 9 innings) numbers?” over and over again all year.

Mike Cameron has 265 career home runs and three gold gloves.  Even traditionalists would like that.  Advanced metrics, or Satan thoughts, also say he has saved 100 runs on defense on his career over average outfielders.  he has an OPS + 107 meaning that he is 7% better than an average hitter.

Bay is a better hitter.  But the Sox have Josh Reddick, Ryan Westmoreland, and Ryan Kalish all getting close to being Major League ready OF’s.  Signing Bay to a 5 year deal blocks them all.  Instead, they invested in pitching, which is harder to come by.  Remember, the choice was Bay or Lackey – not Bay or Cameron.  Cameron is a good player keeping the prospects spots warm.

Look, I love Theo. A lot. He’s delivered in spades and I’m not afraid to admit I’m part of his cult, as you would know if you’ve ever seen me down at Park Street in a suit and tie handing out little pamphlets to spread the word about how following the word of Theo has given my life meaning. So if he says this is the path the team needs to follow in 2010, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt with me. If he says pitching and defense are the keys to victory, who am I to argue? Even if the defense is judged on obscure, impossible-to-understand and largely subjective stats that some pale virgin made up in his mom’s basement, I’ll trust Epstein. That’s why my rubber bracelet says ”WWTED?”

Whoa…that pale virgin joke.  First time anyone has gone there.  The WW_____ joke.  Also a first.  Thing is Jerry is so busy with all the gorgeous girls that obscure sportswriters get, he didn’t have time to make up his own jokes.

But I just can’t feel good about it. Maybe my ever-growing paranoia is exaggerating things, but I can’t shake the feeling the Geeks have taken over the Red Sox, if not all of baseball. And believe me, I think they’re capable of pulling off such a coup. It’s amazing how resourceful and clever these nerds can be when their minds aren’t occupied with anything but their own little obsessions. How do you think Bill Gates got where he is today? It certainly wasn’t from spending his free time at the gym.

Name calling.  In school, you get detention for this.  In adult world, you get published.

This “nerd”:

who began this nerdy, loser, dork fest set on taking over the world and spreading baseball communism is standing in front a Red Sox logo.  It is because Bill James works for the Red Sox, and you write about them.

Bill James wins.  That nerd.

At this point you might be saying “Gee, Jer. How do you know so much about Stat Geeks anyway?” Glad you asked because the answer will surprise you. Because I, for a very brief time in my life, was one. Yes, it’s true. Looks like mine and brains, too? As implausible as it sounds, I Was A Teenage Stats Geek. I read the backs of guys’ baseball cards. I studied the day’s box scores. I committed to memory the tops of the all time career statistical rankings in dozens of categories. I swear it’s a true story that I visited the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown with and my fellow Stat Geek buddy Roger corrected the career HR list on the wall. One time I was home sick so I interpolated Ted Williams’ career numbers to fill in the years he lost to two tours of duty in the Marines (700 homers, if you’re wondering). With all the time I squandered playing Strat-o-Matic, I could’ve turned myself into an academic All American.

Wow.  So once upon a time, it was interesting.  Ok…what’s your point?

I loved sports in general and baseball in particular and became fascinated by the numbers. Also, I found out that a guy from my high school, who was drafted in the top 10 in the country by the Mets, was digging foundations at a construction site where my brother was the foreman. So, in addition to realizing Judge Smails was right about the world needing ditch diggers, I figured following baseball was probably a surer route to success for me than actually playing it.

Wow.  When “nerd” was a word I used, baseball players were cool and people with an “A” in journalism were “nerds.”  So…going the “nerd” route is potentially lucrative?  Yet, all nerds live in their mothers basement.  Not lucrative enough to get your own place?

One of these nerds, bloggers, stat blowhards (Michael Schur) wrote a funny blog and now writes one of the best shows on television (Parks and Recreation).  He moved out his parents house a few years ago and into Regis Philbin’s daughters.  Who are you with?

Oh, and he was Mose on The Office.  I had never heard of you until today.  Who is the nerd?

But then, I made an amazing discovery. Something that the Stat Geek population doesn’t know and never will. Women.

And if Jerry ever found a woman, he would then have time to learn a stat or two.  Assuming his mind could comprehend math at a higher level than he understands writing.  Or comes up with insults used after the 8th grade.

And it changed my life forever, in much the same way that Blossom’s life changed in that Very Special Episode where she gets her period, I would never be the same.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  I know he didn’t just cite Blossom’s period.  And stat guys are creepy?

As I recall, the exact moment for me came when Phoebe Cates climbed out of the pool in “Fast Times at Ridgemont High” and took her top off in slow motion to the Cars’ “In Stereo” that did it for me. What Phoebe showed me that day was perfection. I wanted to have them and I was willing to do what it took to get them.

I have an idea: I want to get a hot chick.  I am going to write about baseball.  Not understand it.  Not work to learn it.  I am going to write about it.  Every movie star providing pimply faced high school kids with some soft core pornography dreams of guys that write for a radio station web site.  Jerry so has cool right.  I wish I was him.

If only I could get a job with my bachelors, two masters degrees.  Maybe when I finish the doctorate I am working on I can move out of my mom’s house and find a girl.

Oh, I haven’t lived with my mom since the day after I turned 18 and I have a child with another on the way.

And, I understand statistics.  And have friends.  I even get tan (alright, full disclosure, it takes until August).  And I have no degrees in Math.

Then my whole world was transformed. Suddenly Butch Hobson’s RBI total didn’t mean quite as much. Jim Rice’s total bases faded from my mind. And for me that mean putting away the Baseball Encyclopedia, getting outside and living an actual life. It also led to other discoveries like jobs, cars, activities, beer and sunlight.

Soft core porn usually encourages one to sit in the quiet of their basement more.  I am shocked that that scene caused you to go outside.

Based on the picture, I’d have to estimate that you didn’t stay outside long enough.  But I have a plan to fix it:

But not everyone has evolved the same way. There is a growing subculture of stats-crunching troglodytes among us, and I for one am frightened that these mouth-breathing, greased stained Gollums might actually be influencing something vital to our national interest. Namely, the 2010 Red Sox. They’re like the nerdy fanboys from “Galaxy Quest” being asked to use their ridiculously detailed knowledge of the show to save the world for real. I mean, consider Bill James, who is like a god to these Sabremetric trolls. He’s made an industry out of making up silly, useless formulae to prove things like Alex Gonzalez should be bussing tables in the Fort Myers Waffle House, and yet Theo has given him a position of power and influence in his inner circle. It’s the equivalent of my old Missle Command skills getting me a job with NORAD or my Bill Belichick building a gameplan around my Coleco electric football offense.

Have the Red Sox won two World Series since Bill James was hired, or not?

Oh, and Bill James is married.  Somehow, he found women, too, through his heaping pile of nonsense and basement dwelling.

So as a public service to all like-minded fans, concerned Red Sox citizens worried about the direction the Nation is headed, I’d like to put my ex-Stat Geek skills to us and offer my own formula for judging all statisticians. Let’s call it the NSGR/MMUSRI (Nerdy Stat Geek Ridiculous/Meaningless Made Up Statistic Rating Index). You take any new, obscure baseball evaluation stat and you start with the weight of the guy who invented it, times how many days he’s been wearing the same “Han Solo Shot First” T-shirt, divided by how many times he’s had sex in his life, multiplied by how often his mom cooks his meals add how many days a month he sees the sun times the percentage by which he throws like a girl.

And, what is the formula for judging pompous, untalented, ignorant, low IQ’ed, low end of the totem pole jobbed, pale, sportswriters?  Are your Red Sox T’s cooler than a Han Solo T?  Is spending money on sports a more legit hobby than watching Battlestar Galactica?  I mean, I much prefer sports, but why is one life style ok, and the other not.  Who gets todecide?  We are not in Middle School anymore.  Why does he get to speak like this?  Who gets to decide this?

And why is it not ok to try to learn more?  Why is it not ok to try to be more efficient in spending on scouting, drafting, analyzing, etc.  Wouldn’t this eventually save me money on ticket costs?  Wouldn’t this make the Red Sox, my team, better?  That seems remarkably cool.

Then you throw them all out and go with what your eyes tell you. And stop wasting our time with this Sabremetrics foolishness.

Because believing what your eyes tell you wasn’t debunked by 17th Century Philosophers.

I bet Descartes had no problems with the ladies.

I have a better idea than simply throwing away what one “man” calls foolishness.  Since we have relived middle school during the reading of this article (you know, name calling, talking about periods, getting turned on by nudity in movies, thinking we are cool because we have access to beer, etc.) let’s remember what our teachers used to tell us:

If the kid is being mean, just ignore him.

The funny this is, the world already is ignoring him.  Who wrote this article again?  Some schmuck that can’t get a decent gig.